Menzies House

David Cameron has a Mitt Romney Problem

Dan Whitfield discusses the similarities between David Cameron and Mitt Romney - and how this spells bad news for Cameron:

After Mitt Romney, the Republican nominee for President was defeated last November, British political prognosticators predicted that the result was a good omen for David Cameron and a warning for his opposite number on the Labour benches, Ed Miliband.

They are wrong.

It’s easy to see why the experts made such a mistake.  After all, President Obama won reelection with unemployment hovering at 8% - something no occupant of the White House has ever done before (the closest was Ronald Reagan, who was reelected in 1984 with unemployment at 7.2%).  Obama won in spite of the gridlock paralyzing Washington (for which he is largely responsible), contempt for politicians at record levels, and smoldering resentment over his reform of the American healthcare system.

President Obama also won despite his opponent, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, effectively stealing the mantle of change.

Such similarities to the political situation in the UK will not have gone unnoticed by Tory High Command.  That's why, on the surface, President Obama's reelection is delightful news for Cameron.  Even now, perhaps, advice is being poured into the Prime Minister's ear, urging him to follow the path blazed by the President.  To win a reelection campaign of his own, all David Cameron need do is remind voters of the mess he inherited, emphasize the indicators which point to an economic recovery, and expose his opponents glaring shortcomings.  Follow the Obama recipe, and another 5 years in Downing Street beckon.

But a close look at exit polling should have Conservatives nervous.  It shows that Mitt Romney lost for exactly the same reasons that have damaged British Tories generally, and David Cameron in particular.

The Left: Hoist by their own petard

Dan Nolan on why the left on the internet is absolutely losing their minds, and why they brought this all upon themselves.

Were you to take at face value the grotesque outpouring of utter vitriol from the left-aligned members of the twitter cognoscenti, you would have thought Tony Abbott had taken up a policy of punching babies, burning down forests and beheading immigrants personally. At least, that’s what most sane people would take from the insane out roar of fury currently flitting around the twittersphere. Catherine Deveny, much reviled or revered for her candor even went as far as to state she would be committing suicide if Tony Abbott became PM. Though this does frivolously deal with the serious issue of suicide, such a statement is as utterly vulgar as it is utterly idiotic. You’d think the fact that Australians obviously thought both sides were pretty equal but wanted to put the boot into Labor for how they treated Kevin Rudd would be something people would be able to have a rational discussion about.

Though it is a trend for the blood to boil in all manners of politics, but these attacks on Mr Abbott seem to stem from the old-fashioned geek term of FUD (Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt). Abbott is portrayed as some manner of religious fundamentalist, and insane free-marketer ‘brutopian’ fantasist, or as a complete idiot who will burn this country to the ground with a gigantic grin from ear to ear. Whilst his religious beliefs differ substantially from mine, I don’t find them disgusting or repugnant as most of the virulently atheist crowd do on twitter, simply because he tends to keep them to himself, or at least not vote entirely informed by them. To put it simply, he’s a fairly moderate Catholic, interested in issues of Social Justice, and as a Catholic, issues of contraception and abortion.

Nick Clegg blows kisses to criminals

Ben-Peter Terpstra isn't too impressed with the UK Liberal Democrats' policy on crime.

In case, you’ve been sleeping in of late, there are some very informative and very British debates going on right now. Yes, election season is here - and the Liberal Democrats are reminding voters that jails create crimes. Did I use the word informative? Sorry, I meant idiotic.

The good news:  Ed West who specialises in politics, religion and low culture is getting pissy with leader Nick Clegg’s soft-on-crime arguments. Writing for the UK’s Telegraph he points out:

The State

The Conservatives in the UK have given Australian centre-right politics an example to follow, writes Michael Gabrielsen.

I sit here at my desk grinning at the ideological brilliance of the Conservatives’ election campaign in the United Kingdom. It is something that is not often seen: a real battle between left and right, between different principles and different ideologies. It is near-unthinkable to see such a thing being played out.

Polls & The UK Election - WTF Edition

Tim Andrews expresses some surprise at recent polling in the United Kingdom

Hey, Britain, WTF man? Seriously? I mean, seriously?!?!? Is this some kind of joke?

Okay, to those of you who are unaware of what I'm talking about, I've just seen some of the recent polling for the UK General Election, set for the 6th of May. And...um... here's what I've read:

On Friday the 16th, YouGov had the Tories on 33% (down 4), Labor on 28% (down 3) , and the Liberal Democrats on... wait for it... 30% (up 5).

The Lib Dems in second place?!?!?! Okay, so it's a rogue poll. These things happen. Dismiss and move on. 

So, next poll. Com Res came out the next day with Tories on 34% (down 4), Labour on 27% (down 2), and the Liberal Democrats on... 29% (up 8). 

Um, okay then.