Warm and well fed, or hungry in the dark?

Vic Forbes asks, which is worse – gradual man-made global warming or sudden electricity blackout?

Vic Forbes asks, which is worse – gradual man-made global warming or sudden electricity blackout?

Alarmists try to scare us by claiming that man’s activities are causing global warming. Whether and when we may see new man-made warming is disputed and uncertain. If it does appear, the world will be slightly warmer, with more evaporation and rainfall; plants will grow better and colonise some areas currently too cold or too dry; fewer old people will die in winter and sea levels may continue the gradual rise we have seen since the end of the last ice age.

There may even be a bit more “green” in Greenland. There is no evidence that man’s production of carbon dioxide is causing more extreme weather events. Any change caused by man will be gradual and there will be plenty of time to adapt, as humans have always done. Most people will hardly notice it.

What is certain, however, is that global warming policies are greatly increasing the chances of electricity blackouts, and here the effects can be predicted confidently – they will be sudden and severe.

Localised short-term blackouts can be caused by cyclones, storms, fires, floods, accidents, equipment failure or overloading. People will cope with them. The more widespread blackouts, caused for example by network collapse or insufficient generating capacity, will have severe effects.

All modern human activities are heavily dependent on electricity. Blackouts will stop lifts, trains, traffic lights, tools, appliances, factories, mines, refineries, communications and pumps for fuel, water and sewerage. People will be trapped or stranded in trains, ports, airports, lifts, hotels, hospitals and traffic jams. ATM’s, credit cards and supermarket checkouts will not work. Cash, cheques, IOU’s and pocket calculators will be required to buy anything.

Immediately a blackout occurs, those with emergency generators, fuel or batteries will start using them. But within a very few days, batteries will run flat, emergency fuel supplies will be exhausted, food supplies will disappear from stores and pumped water will not be available. Intensive dairies, hatcheries, piggeries and feedlots will all face critical problems in keeping their animals alive and cared for.

If the blackout is extensive and prolonged, looting will infect the big cities and then spread to country areas. People who are old, sick, incapacitated or alone will be forgotten as able-bodied people focus on feeding and protecting their own.

The real threat to humanity today is not the theoretical dangers from gradual man-made global warming. A far bigger real danger is the growing threat to reliable electricity supplies from deep-green climate policies.

The most reliable electricity supplies come from coal, gas, hydro, nuclear, geothermal or oil. Misguided politicians and uncompromising nature are conspiring to ensure that few of these will be available to generate Australia’s future electricity.

The carbon tax and renewable energy targets threaten the financial viability of using coal, gas or oil to generate electricity. Banks and investors will not risk their capital on new carbon-powered stations dependent on an unstable and polarised political environment. And the declining profitability of existing stations under the carbon tax and mandated market sharing makes it risky and uneconomic to spend money maintaining existing aging stations.

The same green zealots who plot to destroy carbon energy will also work to prevent the construction of new nuclear or hydro plants in Australia. And Australia’s geothermal resources, being generally deep and remote, are unlikely to provide significant electricity for decades.

We are thus being forced to rely on fickle breezes and peek-a-boo sunbeams to generate expensive and intermittent electricity. And it will not be economic to continue building backup gas plants that are run below capacity or sit idle, earning insufficient income as they try to fill the unpredictable production gaps in the supply of green energy. The margin of supply safety will disappear.

Therefore, if we continue to allow green zealots to dictate our electricity generation, blackouts are inevitable. Britain and Germany already face this grim prospect.

All actions have consequences. We cannot continue pouring billions of dollars of community savings down the climate-change sink-hole, without starving our essential infrastructure. We cannot keep adding taxes and political risk to traditional electricity generators without reducing new investment in real base-load generating capacity. And we cannot keep adding unstable solar and wind elements to our electricity network without adding greatly to electricity costs and the risks of network failure.  

When the lights fail, and the supermarket shelves are cleaned out, we will return, at great cost and after much misery, to cheap reliable continuous electricity using coal, gas or nuclear fuels.

Gaia worshippers will find that “Earth Hour” will not be such fun when it becomes “Earth Week”.

Viv Forbes has no vested interest in electricity generation, except as a consumer. And he gets no funds from the government Climate Change Industry. He holds shares in a small Australian coal exploration company which will benefit by exporting coal if expensive unreliable electricity in Australia forces more power-using industries overseas.

Amazing Magic-gas Discovery

Forbes

Viv takes aim at "an Australian guru" for his failed predictions about rain in Queensland in particular. But, does the great guru feel like a complete fool when he watches Brisbane drown for a second time in two years? GC.Ed.

It has been discovered that Australian coal has a magical property – it is one of a small group of coals which produces an invisible gas with super-natural properties.

This magic gas, carbon dioxide, first became famous for its claimed ability to warm the whole world, thus removing the threat of a new ice age. The British academic who reported this magic power claimed that winter snow would become “a very rare and exciting event”.

Then an Australian guru predicted that just a tiny addition of magic-gas to the atmosphere would abolish floods, and billions of dollars were spent constructing water desalination plants to combat his forecast of never-ending droughts.

Then after massive snows in Britain and huge floods in Australia, it was widely reported that magic-gas could produce both heatwaves and snowstorms, floods and droughts and even bushfires, cyclones and tornadoes, depending on the way the political winds were blowing in that country.

Strangely, only a few countries are able to produce “magic-gas”. A special exclusive club called the Kyoto Club was formed for these lucky countries. Membership fees are stratospheric, but members are rewarded with invitations to lavish UN conventions at top tourist destinations. However, many founding members have allowed their membership to lapse, leaving only EU, Australia and New Zealand as fully paid up members.

Coals burnt in Russia, India, China, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, Korea, Japan, Canada and USA produce carbon dioxide but their gas apparently lacks the magic climate-altering properties of Australian magic-gas. Amazingly, these properties are lost if Australian coal is burnt overseas – once loaded on a ship the magic disappears.

There are a few unpatriotic Australians who think the whole “magic-gas” thing is a big con, and just an excuse for a new tax. Worried that the world may become sceptical of the magic-gas story, CSIRO has been charged to re-educate these dangerous and deluded sceptics. Vast sums are also being spent by academics to invent more climate-bending properties for carbon dioxide, and regular dramatic announcements are expected on the ABC and the BBC.

In 2007, Tim Flannery predicted cities such as Brisbane would never again have dam-filling rains, as global warming had caused "a 20 per cent decrease in rainfall in some areas" and made the soil too hot, "so even the rain that falls isn't actually going to fill our dams and river systems … ".

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/it-pays-to-check-out-flannerys-predictions-about-climate-change-says-andrew-bolt/story-e6frfhqf-1226004644818

Viv Forbes,

Rosewood    Qld   Australia

forbes@carbon-sense.com

Using Food for Fuel is an Evil Exchange.

Forbes

As Viv writes: practical logic is not common to all people. GC.Ed.

In the fuzzy “science” of economics, one law stands out like a light-house in the fog – the law of supply and demand.

That law tells us that when the demand for any commodity is increased by subsidies or tax breaks, or by mandating its use, its price will settle higher than it would otherwise have been.

When ethanol is subsidised or mandated, its production will become more profitable, more ethanol will be produced, and demand for the ingredients of its manufacture will increase. Thus more cereals, sugar, molasses, soy-beans and palm-oil will be diverted from producing food to producing ethanol. Consequently, their prices will also rise and less of them will be left for stock feed and human consumption. As a result of these higher prices for ethanol ingredients, more marginal land will be assigned to ethanol crops, and the cost of producing them will be higher.

Using more diesel to fuel more tractors and trucks to produce more crops, and then using government coercion to divert those crops into production of an inferior fuel for cars, makes no sense outside of Parliament.

Burning food for fuel is bad for the economy and the environment, does nothing for the climate, and harms human welfare.

Causing starvation for some humans so that others can feel green and virtuous is an evil exchange.

Viv Forbes, 

Rosewood    Qld   Australia

forbes@carbon-sense.com

Power Reform and Becoming a Third World State


David elson

David Elson is not the only one doubting the government's electricity reform agenda. It's appalling record on most policy fronts does nothing to engender any faith.

 After
hearing the Federal Government’s electricity reform plan on the radio this
morning I had a fear, that the prediction of the much maligned Mr Lee Kuan Yew
(you know the one)
had suddenly become true and that Australia was on a path of inevitable
decline.

 Why
do I have a sinking feeling Australia is becoming a third world state?

I'd
prefer the Government (both State and Federal) spent money providing us
reliable power during the hot summer months rather than force electricity
companies to cut funding to infrastructure; with incentives for consumers to
use less.

It almost beggars belief that the Federal Government plans to reduce
power bills by reducing household electricity usage through forcing the states
to spend millions on monitoring tools while simultaneously severely cutting
back and restricting future investment in infrastructure through regulation.

According to this break down from Aurora Energy the high cost of bills are
not simply a result of the “gold plating” of infrastructure:

  • 33.4%
    Generation
  • 5.8%
    Carbon price
  • 4.8%
    Renewable Energy Certificates
  • 0.4%
    Market charges
  • 13.8%
    Transmission
  • 33.9%
    Distribution
  • 7.9%
    Retail

Other factors include the solar tariff scheme that many States have in
place, which gives money back to those with certain green energy systems that supplies
electricity back to the grid.

As you can see from the above it’s certainly possible to reduce the cost
of the average household’s energy bill without preventing further investment in
“poles and wires”, infrastructure I might add that is essential in delivering
reliable power to the grid and your family home.

It’s possible to simply remove renewable energy subsidies and mandates,
and the carbon tax to greatly reduce the cost of power bills and its associated
impacts on low income families without any effective impact on service provided
by power companies.

In some states the amount the Carbon Tax contributes to power bill
increases could amount to a quarter of all total increases
in power bills.

My biggest fear is that these “reforms” will be passed, but the impact
won’t be felt until the future when underinvestment in infrastructure suddenly
becomes a problem, i.e.; blackouts (or brownouts) begin occurring frequently
during the “one day a year” (according to the Prime Minister and seconded by
her loyal ABC 24 Breakfast News) when it’s hot in Australia.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I had thought we had a few months of summer
in Australia, maybe the PM is confusing Australia with her homeland of Wales?

I feel the following pics would help enlighten those unfamiliar with
this recent reform proposal:

Perth’s
average monthly temperatures:

Untitled1

Australia’s
future night life scene:

Untitled2

News
Headlines pertaining to other Nations with Green friendly infrastructure
policy’s (soon to also include Australia):


Untitled3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Contrary to what a variety of Australia Government both left and right,
State and Federal believe, the solution to rising consumption and increasing
population is not to cut usage, or provide disincentives or punishments for use
of a service (see transportation
in Australia) but to increase investment and provision in the service; be it
road, public transport or power that people require to survive in a modern 21st
century nation.

David Elson is a senior public servant who has long taken an interest in the economic impact of Federal policies particularly those pertaining to environmental or social issues and in the cultures of Australia's Asian neighbours.  He lives in Brisbane, Queensland with his Taiwanese wife and is an avid squash player.

European Union probes China on solar panels

BEIJING (AFP) – China said Thursday it "deeply
regrets" a European Union decision to probe claims solar panel products
were being sold by Chinese firms below cost and warned of problems potential
penalties may cause.

EU ProSun, a group of more than 20 European solar panel
makers, in July called on the European Commission to impose tariffs to punish
its Chinese rivals who it suspects "dumped" goods and received
subsidies from Beijing.

The European Union said Thursday it has decided to start an
anti-dumping investigation after evidence provided by EU ProSun showed the
Chinese products have had "substantial adverse effects on the financial
situation of the Union industry".

Read more

ACT Labor’s plan to commit economic suicide

Semple

Andy Semple says Labor has made a big mistake concerning renewable energy. 'This just proves some Labor people are as “dumb as posts.”'

'ACT Labor has unveiled an ambitious plan to source 90 per cent of the Territory's power from renewable sources by 2020.

…The strategy includes a mix of large scale wind and solar projects, a greater reliance on public transport and boosting energy efficiency in houses and buildings.'

ACT rate payers should be worried. The facts are Wind Energy is terribly expensive and inefficient and the German experience with Solar suggests it’s an incredible waste of money – a staggering $300 billion euros or $377 billion AUD.

Naturally ACT Environment Minister Simon Corbell thinks ACT consumers will be winners. Pity the only winners are the rent seeking wind and solar manufacturers.

I concluded that the Greens 100 per cent renewable energy push would cost a staggering $2.3 Trillion by the turn of the century so how on earth does Corbell thing ACT consumers will be better off?

The hard reality is that both Wind and Solar don’t reduce carbon dioxide emissions and worse, the energy they do produce costs significantly more than traditional fossil fuel sources. A fact the Australian Government’s own Productivity Commission confirmed:

  • Coal fired power station $79 per Mw/h (megawatt/hour)
  • Gas fired power station $97 per Mw/h – or 1.2 times the cost of coal power
  • Wind power $150-214 per Mw/h – or nearly 3 times the cost of coal power
  • Solar power $400-473 per Mw/h – or nearly 6 times the cost of coal power

You don’t need to be Einstein to work out that the high cost of Wind and Solar is the reason the public are being screwed with high electricity prices. The Carbon Tax just adds further pain.

ACT Labor is just too dumb to know this.

The World-Wide Renewable Energy Scam

A.Semple energy

Andy Semple blows the whistle on the renewable energy debacle. The Greens led hysteria is turning to dust as the truth about costs is being exposed. A newly formed Australian "Citizens' Jury' has recommended that 'nuclear power stations in NSW is an issue that ''should not be dismissed''.'

Andy says, "no, we’re not making this up [the graph]. Read here and here for the facts.

If anyone besides the Government was involved in such a scam, it would be called organised crime."

Graphic by Steve Hunter, a freelance cartoonist and illustrator living in Buderim Queensland.

See "Andy's Rant" in the Blogroll.